Political Commentary

The budget for 2026 proposed by the government has been generally well received. The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce praised the plan, with its chairperson Krishan Balendra stating that “from a prrivate-sector perspective this Budget provides stability” and emphasising that “with the steps that were taken and the discipline we have seen since 2022, Sri Lanka avoided going down the same path as countries that suffered years of high inflation and collapsing exchange rates. This budget continues that stability.” On the opposition side, Harsha de Silva of the SJB acknowledged that the government “has shown prudence in aligning with international financial institutions”, even though his party will continue to scrutinise the human cost of the measures and the absence of a clear programme to achieve growth.

This past October 30 marked the 35th anniversary of a mass crime that has all but faded from public memory. The British High Commission, in collaboration with Collective for Historical Dialogue & Memory hosted a documentary screening and panel discussion to mark 35 years since the expulsion of Northern Muslims. On that day in 1990 the entire Muslim population of the Northern Province was ordered by the LTTE to leave their homes within hours. In Jaffna, the cultural capital of the Tamil people, families were given only two hours to leave. In other parts of the North the time ranged from one to two days. They were told they could take only their clothes and a few belongings. The LTTE justified the expulsion of the Muslims by claiming it was a security measure against collaboration with the government. At checkpoints, LTTE cadres seized money, jewellery, and deeds to property. Some women had their wedding necklaces pulled from their necks. Those who attempted to reason or plead were told that everything earned in Tamil Eelam belonged to Tamil Eelam.

Once again, Sri Lanka is at the crossroads. After decades of missed opportunities and delayed reforms, the conditions are there for a lasting political resolution of the ethnic conflict. The NPP government has the chance to resolve the country’s longest and most divisive conflict through Sri Lankan institutions, on its own terms. The government holds a two-thirds majority in parliament that allows it to amend the constitution and introduce the reforms that past governments promised but failed to deliver. It came to power on the back of a popular demand for system change, and the public expectation that followed that election was not for minor adjustments but for a deep restructuring of the state. The opposition is neither strong nor dominated by the racist and extremist voices that in the past sabotaged every attempt at reconciliation.

The present government is keenly aware it came to office with an overwhelming mandate from the people that is widely interpreted as one for “system change”. Its leaders often speak as if this mandate is a form of ownership, held in trust by them. This attitude is creating problems for both the government and the country. In democratic theory, legitimacy arises not solely from electoral victory but from the ongoing consent and participation of all citizens. The principle of democracy entails governance that reflects the will of the people, not just the majority, and ensures that minority voices are heard and respected.

In contrast to intolerance in governance and towards others who are deemed to be outsiders that is increasingly being manifested in the world, Sri Lanka is taking a different path. It is adopting an inclusive approach to all communities that is in the national interest and is winning international support. The country’s recent conduct at the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) is a case in point. Rather than forcing a vote that would have been divisive and that would have pitted Sri Lanka against the Western countries promoting the resolution, the government opted for cooperation over confrontation. By doing so it signaled to the international community that the country is not taking sides internationally and prefers engagement and dialogue to confrontation and defiance.

The government is investing its time and money in northern development in a way that no previous government has in a long while. The topmost leaders of the government no less, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Leader of the House Bimal Rathnayake, have been spending a great deal of their time and effort in the north. During their visits they meet face to face with persons from different walks of life and launch new development projects that will benefit the people. These face-to-face engagements signify not only physical connectivity but the rebuilding of trust between the government and the people of this once war-torn area of the country. Last week Minister Rathnayake was in Jaffna to launch the widening of the access road to the Kurikadduwan Jetty which is launching point of ferries (boats) that take passengers to the small islands off Jaffna.

There is a renewed energy visible in the North. Government officials from the North affirm there is reason for cautious optimism. Development activity is more visible now than at any point since the end of the war. A government officer remarked that President Anura Kumara Dissanayake obtained around 27,000 votes in the Jaffna district during the last presidential election, but if he were to contest again today, he might receive 200,000. This may be one person’s opinion but it reflects a positive response to gestures of inclusion and practical delivery of services long denied. It also reflects a rising confidence in the president due to his policies that speak of equal treatment and its rejection of ethnic division as a tool of politics.

A toned-down UN resolution on Sri Lanka now appears likely at the current session of the Human Rights Council. The government would prefer that the periodic scrutiny of its human rights record be wound down. The government would much rather have this thrice yearly procedure come to a permanent end without having to provide answers to the reports of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and to member countries of the UNHRC. However, the international human rights community is not prepared to let Sri Lanka slip off without fulfilling promises made in successive resolutions and by past governments. Long unresolved issues continue such as missing persons, long term prisoners, militarization of the north and east and the absence of devolution of power, to mention but a few.

Sri Lanka has reason to be satisfied with the response it is receiving from the international community. Three different international monitoring bodies have chosen to give the government good reports. The first was the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) based in Sweden. Its Global State of Democracy Index for 2025 saw Sri Lanka jump 15 places since last year to 58th out of 173 countries. Last year Sri Lanka was in the 73rd place. That rise reflects gains in elected government, freedom of expression and press freedoms. The report also stated that Sri Lanka ranked even higher and in the top 25 percent of all countries regarding civic engagement and electoral participation.

Since the war ended bloodily on the military battlefield in 2009, Sri Lanka has been subjected to repeated and increasingly intrusive scrutiny by the international community that has rankled successive governments and induced them to react defensively. This year’s UN Human Rights Council session is no different, with fresh emphasis on accountability and reconciliation. Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath will be representing Sri Lanka at the UNHRC’s 60th session that commenced this week. The government will be calling on the international community to give it the space to continue with its programme to advance the rights and wellbeing of all Sri Lankans.

For decades voters have heard promises of integrity, justice and accountability. These promises have come with every election, but they have invariably ended in disappointment. Investigations have faltered, commissions have been wound up, and the very leaders who promised to end corruption and impunity have too often joined the ranks of those who perpetuated them. The NPP government is now making the point that it will do its utmost to deliver on its promises and commitments. The arrest of former president Ranil Wickremesinghe on charges of mis-spending government resources was perhaps to make this point.

The arrest and remand of former President Ranil Wickremesinghe was unexpected. It seems that the former President did not believe that he would suffer the fate of countless others when he went to the police to be questioned on a Friday. He ended the day in handcuffs and was taken away in the Black Maria used for the transport of criminals to jail. He is currently in the intensive care unit of the National Hospital, Colombo. This episode has caused much controversy and heartburn. The former President is seen by many as the leader who steered the country out of economic collapse and potential political chaos on more than one occasion.

The meeting of 17 major opposition figures to discuss political strategies received wide publicity. Those who attended the meeting denied that it was to oppose the government. They said that it was to exchange ideas about recent political developments and to identify points of common concern. Several participants including former ministers Prof GL Peiris and Mano Ganesan informed the media that the purpose of the discussion was to promote dialogue among democratic forces and to explore ways of strengthening the institutions of democracy. The NPP government’s dominance comes with increasing public expectations, on economic revival, justice for incidents of past violence, and respect for minority rights. If the opposition is to reconnect with voters, they need to hold the government accountable with substance.

Addressing Parliament, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake affirmed the government’s commitment to confronting human rights violations from the past, stating: “We will face these grievous legacies openly, firmly, and with sensitivity to all communities.” He specifically highlighted the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), describing it as the “most potent and most misused national-security law in our history.” Introduced 37 years ago during the early stages of the Tamil militant movement, the law was explicitly intended as a temporary safeguard. Yet now 16 years after the end of Sri Lanka’s armed conflict its continued necessity is rightly in serious question, a view shared by numerous local and international human-rights organizations.

The news from the US trade office was better than expected. Sri Lanka, which had been shocked by the sudden imposition of a 44 percent tariff by the U.S. authorities in April 2024, has seen it reduced to 20 percent. This is a major concession for a country that is perceived to have strong trading and political ties with China, which the US views as its main global rival. The revised tariff now brings Sri Lanka more closely to other Asian competitors such as India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, whose exports faced significantly lower rates under the same policy in April of 27, 37, and 30 percent respectively. The sharp drop in tariffs followed the visit of a high-level Sri Lankan delegation to Washington DC and a virtual discussion in July by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake with US Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer.

There is a high level of political polarisation in the country today. Specific manifestations of this polarisation can be seen in the criticism of the government’s proposed educational reforms. There is reluctance on the part of the opposition to give the government any credit for what it is doing. Even what it is doing well, such as keeping the economy stable, is downplayed due to a simple following of the policies of former president Ranil Wickremesinghe. Criminal and drug-related violence that have existed in the past, and was worse in the past, is being blamed on the government’s ineffectiveness.