Political Commentary

The extraordinary events that took place during 2022 have reached their denouement at the recently concluded presidential election.  The Aragalaya protests that lasted for over three months in the middle of 2022 that were spearheaded by youth and became a mighty protest movement by tens of thousands of people from all walks of life and all parts of the country finally drove the then president and government from power.  But as the president and government they forced out had more than two years of their terms remaining, being elected in 2019 and 2020 respectively, the protestors could only force the government to resign. They could not replace it with a government of their choice until elections were due again, which happened on September 21.

As the final lap of the presidential election campaign comes to its close at midnight on Wednesday, there is no certainty about the outcome. The only certainty is that it will be one of three candidates—incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa or NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The other 35 candidates including the young scion of the Rajapaksa family and candidate of the SLPP are at best “also-rans.” But even they are hopeful. There appears to be a substantial number of voters who are undecided, and their hope is that those votes will come their way. Indeed, the principle of the “echo chamber” is working to the fullest extent at this election.

The effort of the March 12 Movement, a civil society collective, to bring presidential candidates onto one platform and share their visions and hopes with the general population was successful in its second round. All six of the presidential candidates who had been scheduled for the debate participated as expected and shared their visions and aspirations for the future. Their message went through the electronic and mass media to the general public. Although titled as a “presidential debate” the structure of the programme was different from that practiced in the United States, where the presidential candidates engage in verbal sparring with one another. The Sri Lankan version was to pose the same question to each of the presidential candidates and have them answer within a set time limit.

The ITAK endorsement of Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa will give a significant boost to his campaign for the presidency which has been steadily growing stronger, drawing massive crowds and reflected in improvements in public opinion polls. As the main component party of the Tamil National Alliance, the ITAK commands considerable political weight in terms of its ability to muster the Tamil vote. Also, the ITAK enjoys credibility with the international community as it consistently engages with them in order to obtain justice for the Tamil people. By endorsing the Opposition leader, the ITAK joins the main parties of the Muslim and Malaiyaha (Indian origin) Tamil minorities who have already done so.

The question of the economy, the economic development path to be followed and who is best suited to lead the country at this time are the most discussed issues at the present time. But another important issue that has contributed to the economic and other problems the country faces and which has proved difficult to resolve will soon intrude on the discussion. At the same time as the election campaign is in full swing, the sessions of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva are also going to commence soon. The Issue of Sri Lanka’s conformity with the UNHRC resolutions that have been making their regular appearance since 2009 will be taken up at these sessions. Those resolutions are based on the international community’s assessment that successive Sri Lankan governments have not dealt in an acceptable manner with the human rights violations of the past.

The government’s decision to provide every MP with two repeated weapons is an indication of concern about an escalation of violence that might target parliamentarians as the election approaches. A defence ministry letter to the parliamentary secretariat states that in view of the violence of the Aragalaya period, a decision has been made to provide every MP with two repeater weapons for which they need to make payment. This is in addition to the semi-automatic pistol which MPs are entitled to obtain for personal protection. The shotguns obtained through this facility can be retained even in the event the MP exits Parliament, on the basis that the licence is maintained and renewed annually.

With little over a month before presidential elections are due, the speculations about elections not being held have come to a halt which is a testament to the democratic spirit in the country. The election commission has invited Commonwealth and EU election monitors to observe the elections. Political parties and parliamentarians alike are publicly committing themselves to one candidate or to the other. Assertions such as the importance of implementing the IMF agreement rather than holding elections are no longer to be heard. On the contrary, the election campaign is in full swing and includes promises such as to implement the IMF agreement after the elections with amendments.

Sri Lanka has so far been spared the riots and political instability that has rocked other countries facing debt repayment crises. Kenya and now Bangladesh have seen large scale rioting and popular uprisings that are directly the consequence of economic problems that have sharpened the pain felt by the masses of people. Sri Lanka too was in a similar situation at the time President Ranil Wickremesinghe took over the reins of government. The president’s handling of the security situation and economy, and the support he has obtained from the IMF to regain access to international loans, has won him plaudits from the international community. Ironically, the majority of Sri Lankan people, though patient and quiet, may be having a different view which may explain the president’s apparent reluctance to test his popularity at the presidential election.

Inspector General of Police Deshabandu Tennakoon finds himself at the centre of a controversy that goes to the heart of Sri Lanka’s democracy. The Supreme Court has directed that he should be restrained from acting in the position of head of police until the court has fully considered all the petitions submitted against his appointment. Much to the consternation of law abiding people the government has announced its decision not to act on the Supreme Court interim order restraining Deshabandu Tennakoon from functioning as the Inspector General of Police. Despite the ruling by the highest court in the land, the government insists that the Police IGP will continue to hold office which is not acceptable in a law governed society. The threat to democracy cannot be underestimated.

The issue of the proposed 22nd Amendment to the constitution which cast doubt about the holding of the presidential election in view of its requirement of a referendum and focus on the length of the president’s term of office has hopefully been dealt with. In his recent speech while opening the judicial complex in Galle, President Ranil Wickremesinghe went out of his way to assure his distinguished audience including judges of the Supreme Court of his commitment to democratic norms. He demonstrated his responsiveness to the concerns that have arisen from the 22nd Amendment which his own Minister of Justice Wijayadasa Rajapakshe sought to shelve until after the presidential election is held due to the concerns it had generated.

The question mark that hangs over the presidential election due in October this year is not going away. The answer to it keeps getting put off. The latest is the government’s proposed constitutional amendment to eliminate ambiguity in the term of the president from six to five years. The Supreme Court has thrice affirmed the legitimacy of the 19th Amendment which reduced the term of the presidency. Academic scholars such as Dr Nihal Jayawickrama have raised the quetion why nine years later, without any issue having been raised by the Supreme Court or by any other court or tribunal, or in parliament, or in any other forum, the government proposes to amend the constitution for the sole purpose of replacing the words “six years” with the words “five years”.

The deadline for presidential elections is fast approaching and the Election Commissioner will be empowered to declare the date of the election on July 17, just over a week from now. The election rallies are becoming larger and feistier. The two main opposition parties are showing their growing strength in the numbers attending their political rallies. The government too is unifying to meet the challenge. The most recent public meeting brought together the leading members of the ruling SLPP who have been thought to be at loggerheads. Many have resurfaced into the public domain, which they lost when the economy collapsed and they had to go into hiding.

With less than a month before presidential elections are called, President Ranil Wickremesinghe has highlighted the success of his presidency as rescuing Sri Lanka from its international bankruptcy status that prevents it from doing business with the rest of the world. The signing of the agreement on international debt restructuring for USD 5.8 billion with the Official Creditor Committee consisting of several foreign governments that have given bilateral loans to Sri Lanka was celebrated in numerous ways. The president himself made a speech to the nation and firework exhibitions took place in various towns to mark the occasion. The president made it clear that he was the architect of Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. This puts upon him a greater responsibility to engage with the people, listen to them and explain to them what it all means.

With elections and a change of government in one way or the other imminent, the independent institutions of state vested with authority to monitor, and provide a check and balance to government, are vindicating their existence. The reports of the Auditor General over the years has been a testament to the diligence with which public officials empowered with a mandate pursue their tasks and find out the misuse of resources that has taken place. One of its reports is on a petroleum scam that has gone on for years and has come up before the Committee on Public Enterprises in parliament. The Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) has refused approval to award procurement of the 484 MW wind power plant in Mannar and Pooneryn to Adani Green Energy SL Ltd. (AGESL), saying the information submitted to it by the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) was not adequate to assess least cost and technical compatibility.

The demand for “system change” that was a key slogan of the Aragalaya protest movement two years ago is necessarily multi-faceted. It consists of a wide array of subjects including bringing back stolen assets, punishment for the perpetrators and putting an end to corruption. The present reality is still distant from this vision of a new social order that the protest movement had, and continues to have. No stolen assets are yet recovered either locally or internationally, though the government is formulating a new Proceeds of Crime law. Those whose property was set on fire in the last stages of the Aragalaya, before President Ranil Wickremesinghe was able to clamp down on that, are still claiming compensation. Government officials to whom they make their claims confide that the claims made by them are much more than what was lost. So the old order continues to prevail.

The petrol and gas queues are gone, but economic statistics paint a grim picture. The country’s international debt continues to mount inexorably as it did before the economic crash. Two years ago when the economic crisis hit, it was in the region of USD 80 billion. According to news reports, Sri Lanka’s debt has now increased to over USD 100 billion amid marginal improvement in some macroeconomic measures (such as inflation), while unpaid principal and interest on selected debt exceed USD 6.4 billion. This bodes ill for the country. It shows that little that is fundamental has changed in these past two years. The country, and government, continue to spend more than they earn and can only make ends meet by borrowing from abroad.