Political Commentary

The local government elections, long delayed and much anticipated, are shaping up to be a landmark political event. These elections were originally due in 2023, but were postponed by the previous government of President Ranil Wickremesinghe. The government of the day even defied a Supreme Court ruling mandating that elections be held without delay. They may have feared a defeat would erode that government’s already weak legitimacy, with the president having assumed office through a parliamentary vote rather than a direct electoral mandate following the mass protests that forced the previous president and his government to resign. The outcome of the local government elections that are taking place at present will be especially important to the NPP government as it is being accused by its critics of non-delivery of election promises.

The international system, built at the end of two world wars, was designed with the aspiration of preserving global peace, promoting justice, and ensuring stability through a Rules-Based International Order. Institutions such as the United Nations, the UN Covenants on Human Rights and the United Nations Human Rights Council formed the backbone of this system. They served as crucial platforms for upholding human rights norms and international law. Despite its many imperfections, this system remains important for small countries like Sri Lanka, offering some measure of protection against the pressures of great power politics. However, this international order has not been free from criticism. The selective application of international norms, particularly by powerful Western states, has weakened its legitimacy over time.

Minister of Agriculture K D Lalkantha, one of the most senior members of the government, has made a statement regarding former president Ranil Wickremesinghe which has been a subject of speculation. Minister Lalkantha said that the former president has the best understanding of the present international economic order and the economic challenges facing the country. He had asserted that the former president has a distinct worldview, rooted in neoliberalism, which continues to shape his approach. He is quoted as having said, “This shift towards neoliberalism is what we are witnessing now. Ranil was the first politician in Sri Lanka to openly embrace neoliberalism,” he remarked. “He is the knowledgeable figure in this area.”

The sudden reemergence of two major incidents from the past, that had become peripheral to the concerns of people today, has jolted the national polity and come to its centre stage. These are the interview by former president Ranil Wickremesinghe with the Al Jazeera television station that elicited the Batalanda issue and now the sanctioning of three former military commanders of the Sri Lankan armed forces and an LTTE commander who switched sides and joined the government. The key lesson that these two incidents give is that allegations of mass crimes, whether they arise nationally or internationally, have to be dealt with at some time or the other. If they are not, they continue to fester beneath the surface until they rise again in a most unexpected way and when they may be more difficult to deal with.

Six months into the term of office of the new government, the main positive achievements continue to remain economic and political stability and the reduction of waste and corruption. The absence of these in the past contributed to a significant degree to the lack of development of the country. The fact that the government is making a serious bid to ensure them is the best prognosis for a better future for the country. There is still a distance to go. The promised improvements that would directly benefit those who are at the bottom of the economic pyramid, and the quarter of the population who live below the poverty line, have yet to materialise. Prices of essential goods have not come down and some have seen sharp increases such as rice and coconuts. There are no mega projects in the pipeline that would give people the hope that rapid development is around the corner.

The Batalanda Commission report which goes into details of what happened during the JVP insurrection of 1987-89 has become the centre of public attention. The controversy has long been a point of contention and a reminder of the country’s troubled past and entrenched divisions that still exist. The events that occurred at Batalanda during the violent suppression of the JVP-led insurgency, remain a raw wound, as seen in the sudden resurfacing of the issue. The scars of violence and war still run deep. At a time when the country is grappling with pressing challenges ranging from economic recovery to social stability, there is a need to keep in focus the broader goal of unity for long-term peace and prosperity. But the ghosts of the past need also to be put to rest without continuing to haunt the present and future.

It was three years ago that the Aragalaya people’s movement in Sri Lanka hit the international headlines. The world watched a celebration of democracy on the streets of Colombo as tens of thousands of people of all ages and communities gathered to demand a change of government. The Aragalaya showed that people have the power, and agency, to make governments at the time of elections and also break governments on the streets through non-violent mass protest. This is a very powerful message that other countries in the region, particularly Bangladesh and Pakistan in the South Asian region, have taken to heart from the example of Sri Lanka’s Aragalaya. It calls for adopting ‘systems thinking’ in which there is understanding of the interconnectedness of complex issues and working across different sectors and levels that address root causes rather than just the symptoms.

The United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) sessions in Geneva have regularly been a focal point of controversy for Sri Lanka. Since 2009, the year the thirty-year internal war ended, the country has been the subject of multiple resolutions aimed at addressing human rights violations and war crimes committed during and after the war. These resolutions have been met with strong resistance from successive Sri Lankan governments, which have accused the UNHRC of double standards and external interference in the country’s internal affairs. Nationalist political factions have often used the UNHRC’s actions as a rallying point to stir anger against the international community and ethnic minorities within Sri Lanka, further deepening divisions within the country.

President Donald Trump in the United States is showing how, in a democratic polity, the winner of the people’s mandate can become an unstoppable extreme force. Critics of the NPP government frequently jibe at the government’s economic policy as being a mere continuation of the essential features of the economic policy of former president, Ranil Wickremesinghe. The criticism is that despite the resounding electoral mandates it received, the government is following the IMF prescriptions negotiated by the former president instead of making radical departures from it as promised prior to the elections. The critics themselves do not have alternatives to offer except to assert that during the election campaign the NPP speakers pledged to renegotiate the IMF agreement which they have done only on a very limited basis since coming to power.

The virtually overnight suspension of the U.S. government’s multibillion dollar foreign aid programme channeled through USAID has been headline news in the U.S. and in other parts of the world where this aid has been very important. In the U.S. itself the suspension of USAID programmes has been accompanied by large scale loss of jobs in the aid sector without due notice. In areas of the world where U.S. aid was playing an important role, such as in mitigating conditions of famine or war, the impact is life threatening to large numbers of hapless people. In Sri Lanka, however, the suspension of U.S. aid has made the headlines for an entirely different reason.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is showing the change for the better that a single individual can bring by challenging old ways of doing things by those who have traditionally governed the country. According to the news media and first person accounts by commentators contacted in Jaffna, the president’s visit to the Jaffna peninsula last week was a success. It seems that the president timed his visit to the north in the context of forthcoming local government elections that are anticipated to be held in April. The focus on Jaffna during his visit would have been the central place that Jaffna has as the civilizational seat of the Tamil people.

The government is reported to be preparing legal amendments to ensure the conduct of long postponed provincial elections. Elections to the nine provincial councils have been postponed since 2017 when the government at that time decided to amend the law pertaining to the conduct of provincial elections. But they never completed the process, which gave them the excuse not to hold the elections. Thereafter no government had sufficient interest in holding elections to the provincial councils by completing the process of changing the provincial council election law. The result is that today the devolved provincial council system is run by appointees of the central government. Little do they recognize or accept that they are violating the constitution by technical excuses.

Four months after coming to power, the NPP government is facing growing criticism from those in the opposition and also scepticism regarding its ability to make policies necessary to revive the country and its economy. The catchy stories in the media are invariably in relation to some mishap or shortcoming in the past of government leaders. Some of these relate to the inexperience of the new decisionmakers, many of them having spent their lives in academia rather than in politics or public administration. The criticisms that ring true to the masses of people relate to the economic difficulties they continue to experience in full force. Those who contributed to the economic catastrophe of 2022 by their own actions over the past decades have little credibility to criticize.

The government has two sets of problems coming from the past, one external to it and the other internal, but both interconnected. The external problems include the vulnerable state of the economy which is on the mend by any objective standard. But the government is liable to face growing public disenchantment unless the benefits of development are more widely distributed. However, the last government’s negotiations with international creditors and the agreement with the IMF leave little room for the new government to manoeuvre. The reduction in the debt that was negotiated was around 20 percent overall, which is significantly less than obtained historically from similarly positioned countries. In 2020, Argentina restructured $65 billion in foreign bonds, securing a 50 percent reduction in debt payments over the next decade.

Among the important promises of the NPP government to the people has been to address the problem of corruption and waste. This was the centrepiece of the Aragalaya protests that brought down the government in 2022. The government made many other promises too when it was in the opposition. But unlike in the case of these other promises, such as to reduce the cost of living, the promise to reduce corruption and waste is within the power of the government to a greater extent than to bring down the cost of living which is determined by external factors more than by internal ones. The government has cut down on its costs considerably. Its celebrations of its electoral victory and swearing in of the new president and parliament was on a low key. The president took only a small delegation with him on his first official trip abroad to India.

Downtown Colombo and especially its upmarket commercial areas sparkled, and will continue to do so, in the night this Christmas season until the grand finale on New Year’s Eve. There is little indication that this city of night lights had experienced dire economic collapse just three years ago. The long lines of vehicles that once queued up for fuel outside petrol stations are overshadowed the much longer lines of traffic crawling on the way to the centre of celebrations at Galle Face Green, once the epicentre of the Aragalaya protests that brought down the government and had the president fleeing the country.