Political Commentary

The Paris Club has declared its satisfaction at the agreement reached between the government and IMF regarding a USD 2.9 billion loan to be given over a period of 48 months. The loan will be made under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, which helps countries deal with balance of payments or cash flow problems. The Paris Club is an informal group of rich countries which have given loans to less developed countries. They seek to find solutions to the repayment difficulties experienced by those countries which invariably occur. The enlightened self-interest of the countries that constitute the Paris Club can be seen in their member countries’ provision of time, space, advice and more loans to ensure that the original loan obligations to their countries are respected.

The ruling party has requested President Ranil Wickremesinghe to facilitate the return of former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa to the country and his appointment as prime minister. The former president left the country when large numbers of protestors who had been actively protesting against the economic collapse and corruption in the country took over his presidential residence. Few would wish to see a former president going from country to country seeking asylum. Even those who have supported the protest movement are unlikely to oppose his return to the country. However, any attempt to promote his active participation in political affairs is likely to be controversial and would also go against the “Gota Go Home” struggle’s main objective and can undermine the government. In fact, the signs of a power struggle are becoming evident which will be detrimental to the stability that the government needs to secure the future of the country.

Early this year the government under President Gotabaya Rajapaksa amended the Prevention of Terrorism law. It accepted the position that the law was in violation of international standards and wanted to show it was committed to improving its human rights record. The ground was set to mitigate the pressures from the UN Human Rights Council and other international bodies. However, the government’s plans now appear to be veering of course. This is reflected in the appeal of UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights Defenders to President Ranil Wickremesinghe not to sign the detention orders of Inter-University Students Federation convenor Wasantha Mudilage and two others. She said “I call on President Ranil not to sign their detention order, doing so would be a dark day for Sri Lanka.” The significance of the detention orders is that they were issued under the Prevention of Terrorism Act.

According to the philosopher Thomas Hobbes, the natural condition of mankind was a state of war in which life was “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short” because individuals are in a “war of all against all.” Therefore, it was necessary for them to come to an agreement. The philosopher John Locke called this the social contract. Social contract arguments are that individuals have consented, either explicitly or tacitly, to surrender some of their freedoms and submit to the authority of the ruler or magistrate (or to the decision of a majority), in exchange for protection of their remaining rights. Constitutions set out the rules by which societies are governed.

The government appears to have secured political stability in the short term. Political stability is necessary for decisions to be made and kept. It is a necessary element for international support to come in. One of the IMF’s conditions to provide the country with the multi billion dollar loan it seeks is political stability that would ensure that commitments that are made will be kept. The protest movement has not mobilized public demonstrations on the very large scale of the past after the appearance of Ranil Wickremesinhe in leadership positions, initially as prime minister and subsequently as president. This would be seen as an achievement by the government.

The government’s efforts to suppress the protest movement by the targeting of its leading members individually is polarizing the country more than ever before. Instead of addressing the underlying causes of the protests, the government is targeting prominent and key members of the protest movement with flimsy charges and under conditions of Emergency Law in which the regular law and its protections can be suspended in their operation. The Fitch Rating of Sri Lanka dated July 28, 2022, states that the government’s parliamentary position appears strong, but public support for the government is weaker. It is therefore important for the government to hear the legitimate voices of the protesters and find ways and means of engaging with them in a meaningful manner rather than suppressing them.

Acting President Ranil Wickremesinghe has been nominated by the SLPP general secretary as the ruling party’s candidate for election to the presidency to take place in parliament on July 20. There is controversy over this nomination as the SLPP chairman and other party members have denied this. The controversy extends also to the larger society where the acting president has become a polarizing figure. To his supporters he is the best hope of a return to the status quo that existed before the economic collapse of the country. There is confidence in his experience and ability to negotiate with the international community. To his detractors, he is the person who is keeping the old order and its corruption – which gave rise to the economic collapse alive — so that they may return to power in the future. An objective assessment is required in terms of short term and long term outcomes.

There is an anxious calm after the unprecedented events of July 9. The Presidential Secretariat, President’s House and Temple Trees, which contain both the prime minister’s official office and residence, are in the hands of the people rather than the rulers. The Aragalaya protestors who occupy these buildings of state coexist in the same space with the security forces personnel who were stationed there to protect those state properties. There was an obvious trust among those who took part in the protests on July 9 that the state’s response would be a benign one. They felt that they were taking part in the protests as part of a national cause that the security forces would respect.

The three-wheel taxi driver did not need much encouragement to talk about the hardships in his life, starting with spending two days in the petrol queue to get his quota. He said that he had a practice of giving his three children a small packet of biscuits and a small carton of milk every morning. But now with the cost tripling, he could only buy one packet of biscuits and his three children had to share it. This is because their beloved country is facing one debacle after another for no fault of those kids or the larger nation. The latest is the failure of the government to make headway in accessing either IMF funding or other funding on any significant scale. Several countries have made donations, but these are in the millions whereas Sri Lanka requires billions if it is to come out of its vicious cycle of a dollar shortage.

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe joining of the government was expected to turnaround the degrading tragic economic situation wherein child malnutrition figures are making Sri Lanka the 7th worst in the world. The country is living almost on a “ship to mouth” basis where the delay of a ship, or the cancellation of a ship bringing fuel, can lead to enormous hardships. More than six weeks after the new prime minister took over, the deadweight he has to pull is turning out to be too much. It is not possible to say that the economic situation has changed for the better. If at all, it has turned worse. The queues outside the fuel stations that are still open, and only a few remain open, are longer than ever. Most fuel stations are closed.

The situation in the country has become so dire that the government has decided that government workers should stay at home for two weeks. Government schools too have been directed to shut down along with government-supported private schools. Only a few of them would have the capacity to conduct online classes as was seen during the Covid lockdowns. In addition to being physically stunted, the way is being paved for a younger generation that is deficient in the growth of their mental and intellectual faculties.

The country appears to have reached a position of stability. But this is deceptive. Every day the price of food increases. Less can be bought with the wages earned that day. The anticipated food shortages have manifested themselves though the sufferings and deprivations are private and personal for the most part. They come out into the open when an office worker may say that they have no money to go back home on the bus at the end of the working day. Or it manifests itself in the statement of the UN representative Hanaa Singer-Hamdy who has said that 22 per cent of the Sri Lankan population or 4.9 million people live in need of food assistance at the moment. She said there is a 40 to 50 per cent reduction in paddy crop harvest in this period.

The situation in the country appears to be getting less hopeful by the day. The Galle Face protest site reflects this despondency. The material conditions of life are getting worse, not better. It is becoming harder for people to make the sacrifice for positive change that may not take place. The lines in front of petrol stations get longer. The number of them that have closed temporarily has increased. The prime minister is warning that there will be food scarcity in the next few months and people should be prepared to settle for two meals a day instead of the regular three. The Colombo mayor has announced that the municipality will set up “soup kitchens” to meet the needs of those who will soon have little or nothing to eat.

The 50th day anniversary of the Aragalaya took place in a generally calm manner. There were special events organized on Saturday including a march from Independence Square to the Galle Face protest site. I met a veteran Colombo-based Tamil journalist who was one of those who made the trek, along with his teenage son. They had come to express their solidarity with the protestors and not to engage in confrontation with the government. So they did not join the smaller group that decided not to stop at the Galle Face protest site, but went on to try and forcibly enter the President’s House. This group was pushed back by the police who tear gassed them to prevent their entrance to the road that led to the President’s House.

The government’s intention to appoint a full complement of ministers and state ministers, and the jostling for positions amongst them, seems to suggest an attitude of business as usual. This is quite astonishing as it was just two weeks ago that no government member felt safe from the wrath of mobs that formed themselves very swiftly and apparently spontaneously to attack their homes and properties. Last week they overrode the opposition’s demand for time to debate the motion of censure against President Gotabaya Rajapaksa for having led the country to disaster. They also scuttled efforts to nominate a female legislator to the post of Deputy Speaker, disregarding the request of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, which could have sown the seeds for consensual governance. They gave priority to their own personal concerns of getting compensation from the state for their losses.

The economy is continuing to deteriorate with barely any dollars in the government’s possession even to pay for essentials such as fuel and medicine. The people will not be able to tolerate more weeks and months of shortages of essential supplies that force them to line up in queues for hours. There is anger seething in people who spend hours standing in queues and those who have seen their real incomes fall by more than a half as prices soar and the rupee sinks. Even though the present economic crisis has its roots in the political system and its weaknesses, the priority at the present time is to salvage the economy and get more dollars to pay for the import of essential commodities. The anger that is building up in society was seen on the fateful evening of May 9 in the attack by government affiliated goons on the GotaGoGama and MinaGoGama protest sites and in the retaliation that followed.