A study by the Economist magazine has shown that Sri Lanka is one of the countries least able to deal with the economic fallout of the coronavirus induced world economic crisis. Out of 66 countries assessed, Sri Lanka came 61st in terms of its ability to handle the crisis without being economically debilitated and fared much worse than its South Asian neighbours. Bangladesh at 9th place, India at 18th and Pakistan at 43rd place all fared better than Sri Lanka. The human cost of the crisis is visible in media images of thousands of angry young workers from around the country stranded in the vicinity of the Katunayake free trade zone, many of them abandoned by their factory employers, unable to get back to their home villages due to the coronavirus travel restrictions.
The direction of Sri Lanka’s democratic process hangs in the balance. As many as seven cases with regard to the general elections and the presidential decree dissolving parliament are pending before the Supreme Court. The outcome of the judicial decision may decide whether Sri Lanka will continue to be governed by the president and caretaker cabinet until the general elections actually take place to bring in a new parliament. The constitution has set a three month limit on such an arrangement sans a parliament.
With general elections anticipated to be held soon, political propaganda is once again being generated by those who hope to attain their goals by it. The elections may be held as soon as June 20 which is the date presently set by the Election Commission. However, the continuing increase in the number of Covid infections is a deterrent to a decision to go ahead with the elections. The fact that the numbers are increasing, albeit relatively slowly in comparison to other countries and inspite of the lockdowns and curfews gives an indicator of a possible spike in the numbers in the event of a no-holds barred general election. The Election Commission shows no enthusiasm to take on the responsibility and blame for being responsible for contributing to a catastrophe in the health situation.
Sri Lanka will be open for business from Monday onwards. It will not be business as usual as the government has laid several conditions on those who will be permitted to leave their homes in the two most populous districts of Gampaha and Colombo. If the experience of the earlier opening that have taken place in the rest of the country is to be a guide, the general population will be cautious in making their entrance onto the roads and shops. In the case of Colombo in particular there is still some confusion about who is permitted to come out. The government would like to see the wheels of the economy begin to turn with a minimum of people-to-people that could spark off the possible second wave of infections. Making the danger of a spike even higher is the prevalence of asymptomatic Covid infected persons who do not show visible symptoms of illness.
The government’s plans to have early general elections have suffered a setback with the decision of the Election Commission to have them on June 20 and not on May 28 as the government had hoped for. The pressure on the Election Commission to give an early date even led to fissures within it that have become a matter of public knowledge. The keenness of the government was such that the Health Minister even predicted that by April 19, the crisis would be under control with the inference that an election campaigning would not be a problem. The example was given of South Korea which held its general election in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. This may not have been a fair comparison as the combination of early voting and electronic voting in South Korea will not be possible in Sri Lanka at its present stage of economic development.
A year ago on April 21 on Easter Sunday the country’s peaceful life for ten years since the war’s end, free from large scale terror attacks, came to an abrupt end. The people who went to the three churches and three hotels that Easter morning were subjected to simultaneous suicide bomb attacks would not have had the slightest inkling of the terrible fate that was going to befall them. At 9 am the six synchronized attacks took place and took the lives of over 250 hapless men, women and children and injured more than 500. The puzzle then, and which remains to this day, was the motivation for the attacks and who was behind them. Cardinal Malcom Ranjith, whose diocese suffered the heaviest casualties, has been the most dogged of the country’s leadership in pursuing this line of inquiry.
The government is continuing to take actions to keep the country in lockdown mode with which the general population has been cooperating with even though it is creating economic hardships to wide swathes among them. These include the imposition of a 24 hour curfew that is now into its fourth week in some areas. Despite the hardships there is widespread support for what the government is doing as the fear of COVID infection is also widespread. In the more rural areas most of the houses have kohomba leaves hanging in their doorframes as they are believed to have medicinal properties that will ward off diseases. The security guard across the road recounted that when he goes home he is compelled to first have a bath and put his clothes to be washed before entering it.
The battle against the COVID virus is becoming more protracted and requiring of greater sacrifice than originally envisaged. This is leading to correspondingly increasing tensions in society, especially in the hotspot districts including Colombo, as the curfew gets extended and daily wage earners find it more and more difficult to sustain their families. So far there has been little or no manifestation of dissent against the serial extension of the curfew. Due to intense media coverage the gravity of the crisis has become embedded within the public consciousness. People appreciate the government’s concerns about limiting the spread of the virus, which their concern as well.
The unprecedented 24 hour curfew is stretching to its second successive week. This first week is ending after more than a week of semi-lockdown where work from home was encouraged. The government appears to be taking no chances to ensure that it will rid the country of the threat of coronavirus infection. About 7000 curfew violators have been arrested. The hardships to the general population are significant with appeals coming from around the country that those who are daily wage earners and living on the margins have no reserves either of cash or food to fall back on.
The government’s inability to obtain the support of the ethnic and religious minorities was visible in the outcome of the presidential election. The popular vote in the districts in which the minority communities predominated went overwhelmingly to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s main challenger, Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa. At his swearing in ceremony, President Rajapaksa was straightforward enough to acknowledge this reality. He said he had been elected president on the votes of the ethnic majority. But in a statesmanlike manner he promised to govern as the president of all Sri Lankans. This is a pledge that the president has repeated on other important occasions, most recently on Independence Day.